Four downs: Re-evaluating Matt Ryan's top-10 status
Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
It’s amazing enough that Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones became the first teammates to achieve a 500-yard passing game and 300-yard receiving effort in the same game, but to execute these performances against the defensively proficient Carolina Panthers adds another level. Jones is a top-tier fantasy option regardless of matchup, and there shouldn’t have been any concern over his unexplainable one-point fantasy game in Week 3 at New Orleans. But Ryan, who entered Week 4 as fantasy’s leading scorer in standard formats, wasn’t supposed to add 36 more points. ESPN’s fantasy staff -- me included -- certainly did not rank him that way.
After all, Ryan, for all he has achieved in his solid nine-year pro career, has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback four times but never in the top five, which makes it a bit tough to figure how this year will be vastly different. For nearly a decade he has performed in the shadow of not only future Hall of Famers like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning but NFC options Aaron Rodgers,Drew Brees and Eli Manning as well. They’ve produced 14 top-five quarterback fantasy finishes and combined for four Super Bowl wins. Ryan boasts nary a top-five finish nor a Super Bowl appearance.
Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft discusses the historic nature of Ryan’s first four games, but it’s not at all predictive, either. Ryan has had terrific starts before and September -- yes, I know it’s October now -- is by far his most productive month for touchdown passes, yards per game and rating. It's not so great after this. Sunday’s performance, in which 415 of the passing yards and three of the four touchdowns came on throws longer than 10-plus yards downfield -- according to ESPN Stats & Information this is the most such yards in a game in the past 10 seasons -- is hard to explain. Ryan’s first three games of the season featured matchups against porous defenses (Buccaneers, Raiders, Saints) but the Panthers defend successfully. How can we not view Ryan as a top-10 option for upcoming meetings in Denver and Seattle after he torched Carolina’s secondary?
Well, stuff happens and sometimes it can’t be explained, and I still don’t think Ryan should be among the top 10 quarterbacks for Week 5. I will, however, acknowledge he has risen to borderline top-10 status for the rest of the season with a crew of others, and while it might not seem like much, note he finished 19th last year and his personnel isn’t terribly different. Some of what occurred Sunday has to be considered unlikely to continue. Ryan has averaged 4,537 passing yards and 27 touchdowns the past five seasons with little variance, never reaching 5,000 yards or 33 scores. He’s good. He’s not great. If that means you’re able to sell high, then so be it.
I’d still rather have Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck, who were barely top-10 quarterbacks in my latest end-of-season rankings. Want to push Ryan over Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford, the latter of whom looked dreadful in becoming Chicago’s first victory on Sunday, sure, but I don't feel great about it. Those quarterbacks don’t boast the weapons Ryan does, but Stafford is more statistically accomplished. Jacksonville’s turnover machine Blake Bortles scared me a month ago and still does. If Ryan can light up the Broncos and Seahawks the next fortnight, the story changes, but for now it should not let Sunday’s outing overrate him as anything more than a borderline top-10 fantasy passer, as awesome as it was.
By the way, Carolina’s defense isn’t suddenly awful, so don’t go dropping it for Buffalo, for example. The Panthers permitted the 49ers to score 27 points in Week 2, but scored 48 themselves and garbage time was the driving culprit. The unbeaten Vikings certainly didn’t dominate offensively last week; they scored one offensive touchdown. The lesson from Sunday’s 48-33 win by Atlanta is to not allow it to sway conventional wisdom too much when it comes to each quarterback and Carolina’s defense, if that’s possible. Cam Newton doesn’t face the Broncos and Seahawks the next fortnight, but the Buccaneers and Saints. Many of us are disappointed in his play, but I’ll still take Newton over every other quarterback, though I admit Rodgers and Brady are right there with him, too.
Second down: So much for Seattle star Wilson being too injured to not only play in Sunday’s game in New Jersey against the Jets, but play spectacularly. No, Wilson and his various leg injuries aren’t nearly 100 percent, so he abandoned his rushing prowess and reminded us he can rock as a pocket passer. He picked apart the Jets for 309 yards and three scores, despite the “scary” presence of oneDarrelle Revis (I jest). Wilson gets the next week off for the bye and then it’s the Falcons, Cardinals and Saints, three defenses he should handle nicely, especially if he can resume running. The Cardinals? Well, they’re struggling and Wilson’s past three forays to Arizona to face the Cardinals have featured nine touchdowns, divided equally. Remember, Wilson wasn’t a top-10 quarterback through two months of last season and then he and wide receiver Doug Baldwinran roughshod on the league. Baldwin was statistically quiet Monday, but tight end Jimmy Graham topped 100 receiving yards for the second consecutive week; that last happened in 2013. He’s back to top-10 status, apparently.
In other quarterback news, keep an eye on the health of Arizona’s Carson Palmer(concussion) and Denver’s Trevor Siemian (shoulder). Palmer wasn’t doing much before leaving the game in the fourth quarter, and his status as a top-10 option is certainly problematic. Denver can win with rookie Paxton Lynchstarting, and perhaps you can as well, but don’t go there yet. In a year in which rookie quarterbacks are all the rage (Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz), nobody should be ignored. Also, I’m not the least bit concerned about Detroit’s Stafford. I can’t explain going from 26 fantasy points at Lambeau Field (Packers) to seven at Soldier Field (Bears), but it happens. Fantasy happens.
Third down: The Baltimore Ravens made news Sunday morning by benching starting running back Justin Forsett, though it’s not like he was Barry Sanders to start with, you know. Forsett was replaced by Terrance West, who took advantage of his opportunity by rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown against the visiting Raiders, and West will likely be the top free-agent running back pickup this week, which in theory is fine. I just can’t tell future West owners for sure that he keeps the job for long, and not because Forsett will resurface. I still think rookie Kenneth Dixon, on the mend from a knee injury, will play a significant role when he’s deemed healthy enough to contribute significant snaps, and that should be soon. Dixon, a fourth-round pick from Louisiana Tech, should be a three-down option, unlike West, who doesn’t catch passes, andJavorius Allen, who has been labeled mainly a pass-catcher. West has disappointed before. If you can see the long term, make Dixon the pickup.
In other running back news, it was quite the crew of 100-yard rushers Sunday, with rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard plus Isaiah Crowell and Matt Jones joining West. We know Elliott is awesome and Crowell is a legit RB2, and between Howard and Jones, I’ll take Howard. Yes, it was the first extended action for the Bears’ fifth-rounder from Indiana, but it’s been clear for a while he’s superior to now-injured Jeremy Langford. I’m ready to have Howard join Crowell as a RB2 moving forward. With Jones, I’m not there yet. Cousins still doesn’t target him much and this was just the second time Jones topped 65 rushing yards in his short career. Perhaps a star is pending, but pilfering the Cleveland defense isn’t enough. We’re also back to worrying about Todd Gurley,Matt Forte and Latavius Murray, though the latter two are the only ones in danger of losing touches. I’d still stubbornly deal for Gurley, though within reason. I’d be concerned about Forte and Murray.
Fourth down: We’ve discussed team wide receiver hierarchies in several blog entries so far and on the surface it seems like Oakland is a team in which the wrong option is given way too much love. Let’s not make that official yet. SophomoreAmari Cooper should be great, of course, but through four games he has been inefficient and disappointing, with nary a touchdown and decreasing receiving yards each week. Meanwhile, veteranMichael Crabtree, whose 2015 performance many viewed as unsustainable, caught three touchdown passes against the Ravens and has been far more productive. No, this doesn’t mean Crabtree warrants must-WR2 status, but those who blindly activate Cooper each week should at least consider if he’s the best option. Cooper is immensely talented and remains a wise buy-low, and a WR2 for Week 5 against the Chargers, but if he doesn’t thrive at home versus that shaky defense, many will be selling.
In other wide receiver news, nobody can reasonably argue Houston Texansrookie Will Fuller V has passed DeAndre Hopkins, but Hopkins owners didn’t enjoy the zero fantasy points against the Titans Sunday. Fuller caught a touchdown pass and returned a punt for another score. Argue that the touted original top tier of wide receivers -- Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Hopkins has lost a member, and perhaps Beckham as well due to excellent play of rookies, but Hopkins remains a desired weekly play. Brandin Cooks, Travis Benjamin and Julian Edelman -- the Tom Brady suspension is over! -- were also way too quiet Sunday, but much better times are ahead. For underachievers DeSean Jackson, Tajae Sharpe, Golden Tate, Willie Snead,Tavon Austin and Tyler Lockett, that might not be the case, for those who need roster flexibility. Jackson couldn’t score a fantasy point against the Browns. Whom will you use him against? Snead is merely for home games. The others don’t get the targets.
Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
It’s amazing enough that Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones became the first teammates to achieve a 500-yard passing game and 300-yard receiving effort in the same game, but to execute these performances against the defensively proficient Carolina Panthers adds another level. Jones is a top-tier fantasy option regardless of matchup, and there shouldn’t have been any concern over his unexplainable one-point fantasy game in Week 3 at New Orleans. But Ryan, who entered Week 4 as fantasy’s leading scorer in standard formats, wasn’t supposed to add 36 more points. ESPN’s fantasy staff -- me included -- certainly did not rank him that way.
After all, Ryan, for all he has achieved in his solid nine-year pro career, has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback four times but never in the top five, which makes it a bit tough to figure how this year will be vastly different. For nearly a decade he has performed in the shadow of not only future Hall of Famers like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning but NFC options Aaron Rodgers,Drew Brees and Eli Manning as well. They’ve produced 14 top-five quarterback fantasy finishes and combined for four Super Bowl wins. Ryan boasts nary a top-five finish nor a Super Bowl appearance.
Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft discusses the historic nature of Ryan’s first four games, but it’s not at all predictive, either. Ryan has had terrific starts before and September -- yes, I know it’s October now -- is by far his most productive month for touchdown passes, yards per game and rating. It's not so great after this. Sunday’s performance, in which 415 of the passing yards and three of the four touchdowns came on throws longer than 10-plus yards downfield -- according to ESPN Stats & Information this is the most such yards in a game in the past 10 seasons -- is hard to explain. Ryan’s first three games of the season featured matchups against porous defenses (Buccaneers, Raiders, Saints) but the Panthers defend successfully. How can we not view Ryan as a top-10 option for upcoming meetings in Denver and Seattle after he torched Carolina’s secondary?
Well, stuff happens and sometimes it can’t be explained, and I still don’t think Ryan should be among the top 10 quarterbacks for Week 5. I will, however, acknowledge he has risen to borderline top-10 status for the rest of the season with a crew of others, and while it might not seem like much, note he finished 19th last year and his personnel isn’t terribly different. Some of what occurred Sunday has to be considered unlikely to continue. Ryan has averaged 4,537 passing yards and 27 touchdowns the past five seasons with little variance, never reaching 5,000 yards or 33 scores. He’s good. He’s not great. If that means you’re able to sell high, then so be it.
I’d still rather have Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck, who were barely top-10 quarterbacks in my latest end-of-season rankings. Want to push Ryan over Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford, the latter of whom looked dreadful in becoming Chicago’s first victory on Sunday, sure, but I don't feel great about it. Those quarterbacks don’t boast the weapons Ryan does, but Stafford is more statistically accomplished. Jacksonville’s turnover machine Blake Bortles scared me a month ago and still does. If Ryan can light up the Broncos and Seahawks the next fortnight, the story changes, but for now it should not let Sunday’s outing overrate him as anything more than a borderline top-10 fantasy passer, as awesome as it was.
By the way, Carolina’s defense isn’t suddenly awful, so don’t go dropping it for Buffalo, for example. The Panthers permitted the 49ers to score 27 points in Week 2, but scored 48 themselves and garbage time was the driving culprit. The unbeaten Vikings certainly didn’t dominate offensively last week; they scored one offensive touchdown. The lesson from Sunday’s 48-33 win by Atlanta is to not allow it to sway conventional wisdom too much when it comes to each quarterback and Carolina’s defense, if that’s possible. Cam Newton doesn’t face the Broncos and Seahawks the next fortnight, but the Buccaneers and Saints. Many of us are disappointed in his play, but I’ll still take Newton over every other quarterback, though I admit Rodgers and Brady are right there with him, too.
Second down: So much for Seattle star Wilson being too injured to not only play in Sunday’s game in New Jersey against the Jets, but play spectacularly. No, Wilson and his various leg injuries aren’t nearly 100 percent, so he abandoned his rushing prowess and reminded us he can rock as a pocket passer. He picked apart the Jets for 309 yards and three scores, despite the “scary” presence of oneDarrelle Revis (I jest). Wilson gets the next week off for the bye and then it’s the Falcons, Cardinals and Saints, three defenses he should handle nicely, especially if he can resume running. The Cardinals? Well, they’re struggling and Wilson’s past three forays to Arizona to face the Cardinals have featured nine touchdowns, divided equally. Remember, Wilson wasn’t a top-10 quarterback through two months of last season and then he and wide receiver Doug Baldwinran roughshod on the league. Baldwin was statistically quiet Monday, but tight end Jimmy Graham topped 100 receiving yards for the second consecutive week; that last happened in 2013. He’s back to top-10 status, apparently.
In other quarterback news, keep an eye on the health of Arizona’s Carson Palmer(concussion) and Denver’s Trevor Siemian (shoulder). Palmer wasn’t doing much before leaving the game in the fourth quarter, and his status as a top-10 option is certainly problematic. Denver can win with rookie Paxton Lynchstarting, and perhaps you can as well, but don’t go there yet. In a year in which rookie quarterbacks are all the rage (Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz), nobody should be ignored. Also, I’m not the least bit concerned about Detroit’s Stafford. I can’t explain going from 26 fantasy points at Lambeau Field (Packers) to seven at Soldier Field (Bears), but it happens. Fantasy happens.
Third down: The Baltimore Ravens made news Sunday morning by benching starting running back Justin Forsett, though it’s not like he was Barry Sanders to start with, you know. Forsett was replaced by Terrance West, who took advantage of his opportunity by rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown against the visiting Raiders, and West will likely be the top free-agent running back pickup this week, which in theory is fine. I just can’t tell future West owners for sure that he keeps the job for long, and not because Forsett will resurface. I still think rookie Kenneth Dixon, on the mend from a knee injury, will play a significant role when he’s deemed healthy enough to contribute significant snaps, and that should be soon. Dixon, a fourth-round pick from Louisiana Tech, should be a three-down option, unlike West, who doesn’t catch passes, andJavorius Allen, who has been labeled mainly a pass-catcher. West has disappointed before. If you can see the long term, make Dixon the pickup.
In other running back news, it was quite the crew of 100-yard rushers Sunday, with rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard plus Isaiah Crowell and Matt Jones joining West. We know Elliott is awesome and Crowell is a legit RB2, and between Howard and Jones, I’ll take Howard. Yes, it was the first extended action for the Bears’ fifth-rounder from Indiana, but it’s been clear for a while he’s superior to now-injured Jeremy Langford. I’m ready to have Howard join Crowell as a RB2 moving forward. With Jones, I’m not there yet. Cousins still doesn’t target him much and this was just the second time Jones topped 65 rushing yards in his short career. Perhaps a star is pending, but pilfering the Cleveland defense isn’t enough. We’re also back to worrying about Todd Gurley,Matt Forte and Latavius Murray, though the latter two are the only ones in danger of losing touches. I’d still stubbornly deal for Gurley, though within reason. I’d be concerned about Forte and Murray.
Fourth down: We’ve discussed team wide receiver hierarchies in several blog entries so far and on the surface it seems like Oakland is a team in which the wrong option is given way too much love. Let’s not make that official yet. SophomoreAmari Cooper should be great, of course, but through four games he has been inefficient and disappointing, with nary a touchdown and decreasing receiving yards each week. Meanwhile, veteranMichael Crabtree, whose 2015 performance many viewed as unsustainable, caught three touchdown passes against the Ravens and has been far more productive. No, this doesn’t mean Crabtree warrants must-WR2 status, but those who blindly activate Cooper each week should at least consider if he’s the best option. Cooper is immensely talented and remains a wise buy-low, and a WR2 for Week 5 against the Chargers, but if he doesn’t thrive at home versus that shaky defense, many will be selling.
In other wide receiver news, nobody can reasonably argue Houston Texansrookie Will Fuller V has passed DeAndre Hopkins, but Hopkins owners didn’t enjoy the zero fantasy points against the Titans Sunday. Fuller caught a touchdown pass and returned a punt for another score. Argue that the touted original top tier of wide receivers -- Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Hopkins has lost a member, and perhaps Beckham as well due to excellent play of rookies, but Hopkins remains a desired weekly play. Brandin Cooks, Travis Benjamin and Julian Edelman -- the Tom Brady suspension is over! -- were also way too quiet Sunday, but much better times are ahead. For underachievers DeSean Jackson, Tajae Sharpe, Golden Tate, Willie Snead,Tavon Austin and Tyler Lockett, that might not be the case, for those who need roster flexibility. Jackson couldn’t score a fantasy point against the Browns. Whom will you use him against? Snead is merely for home games. The others don’t get the targets.
